标题： 俄罗斯的太阳能项目在没有国家补贴的情况下是否可行？ 显示英文标题

标题： Would Russian solar energy projects be feasible independent of state subsidies?

摘要： 本文探讨了在缺乏政府财政支持的情况下，俄罗斯太阳能能源计划的可持续性这一关键问题。 该研究旨在确定俄罗斯能源公司是否可以在不依赖直接国家补贴的情况下维持太阳能能源领域的运营。 在方法上，分析利用了诸如净现值（NPV）、内部收益率（IRR）和贴现回收期（DPP）等已建立的投资指标，这些指标针对俄罗斯太阳能能源设施独特的技术和经济特点进行了调整，并采用评分方法评估行业特定风险对项目效率的影响。 我们对十种不同情景下的十一个太阳能能源项目进行了研究，以了解直接国家支持的动态，探索支持终止、财政援助减少以及项目对外部风险因素的韧性变化。 我们的多准则情景评估表明，在当前的市场条件下，俄罗斯太阳能能源部门尚未具备在持续国家财政补贴之外高效运作的能力。 有趣的是，我们的研究结果还表明，与风能部门相比，俄罗斯的太阳能能源部门有更大的潜力减少对国家支持的依赖。 基于这些见解，我们提出了旨在逐步减少俄罗斯可再生能源市场中直接政府资金的能源政策建议。 该策略旨在促进太阳能能源部门的自给自足和增长。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This paper explores the critical question of the sustainability of Russian solar energy initiatives in the absence of governmental financial support. The study aims to determine if Russian energy companies can maintain operations in the solar energy sector without relying on direct state subsidies. Methodologically, the analysis utilizes established investment metrics such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Discounted Payback Period (DPP), tailored to reflect the unique technical and economic aspects of Russian solar energy facilities and to evaluate the influence of sector-specific risks on project efficiency, using a rating approach. We examined eleven solar energy projects under ten different scenarios to understand the dynamics of direct state support, exploring variations in support cessation, reductions in financial assistance, and the projects' resilience to external risk factors. Our multi-criteria scenario assessment indicates that, under the prevailing market conditions, the Russian solar energy sector is not yet equipped to operate efficiently without ongoing state financial subsidies. Interestingly, our findings also suggest that the solar energy sector in Russia has a greater potential to reduce its dependence on state support compared to the wind energy sector. Based on these insights, we propose energy policy recommendations aimed at gradually minimizing direct government funding in the Russian renewable energy market. This strategy is designed to foster self-sufficiency and growth in the solar energy sector.