标题： 出口复杂度、工业复杂度与巴西区域经济增长 显示英文标题

标题： Export complexity, industrial complexity and regional economic growth in Brazil

摘要： 对生产结构的研究表明，经济复杂性影响经济增长。 然而，对于像巴西这样的大型新兴国家而言，哪种类型的复杂性，例如出口复杂性或工业复杂性，更有利于区域经济增长，目前了解甚少。 巴西出口自然资源和农产品，但大量就业来自服务业、非贸易品和国内制造业贸易。 在此，我们使用一份关于巴西正式劳动力市场的大型数据集，包括约100万名工人和581个行业，以揭示2003年至2019年间558个微区域的出口复杂性、工业复杂性和经济增长模式。 我们的结果表明，出口复杂性比工业复杂性更加均衡分布。 只有少数——主要是发达的城市地区——在复杂服务方面具有比较优势。 回归分析显示，一个地区的工业复杂性是3年增长前景的重要预测因素，但出口复杂性不是。 此外，邻近地区的经济复杂性与经济增长显著相关。 结果表明，出口复杂性不能准确描述巴西的知识基础和增长机会。 相反，促进异质性区域工业结构的复杂化和发展溢出效应是增长的关键。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Research on productive structures has shown that economic complexity conditions economic growth. However, little is known about which type of complexity, e.g., export or industrial complexity, matters more for regional economic growth in a large emerging country like Brazil. Brazil exports natural resources and agricultural goods, but a large share of the employment derives from services, non-tradables, and within-country manufacturing trade. Here, we use a large dataset on Brazil's formal labor market, including approximately 100 million workers and 581 industries, to reveal the patterns of export complexity, industrial complexity, and economic growth of 558 micro-regions between 2003 and 2019. Our results show that export complexity is more evenly spread than industrial complexity. Only a few -- mainly developed urban places -- have comparative advantages in sophisticated services. Regressions show that a region's industrial complexity is a significant predictor for 3-year growth prospects, but export complexity is not. Moreover, economic complexity in neighboring regions is significantly associated with economic growth. The results show export complexity does not appropriately depict Brazil's knowledge base and growth opportunities. Instead, promoting the sophistication of the heterogeneous regional industrial structures and development spillovers is a key to growth.