标题： 民主韧性与社会技术冲击 显示英文标题

标题： Democratic Resilience and Sociotechnical Shocks

摘要： 我们关注在Web 2.0时代，现代信息通信技术（ICT）背景下民主选举的潜在脆弱性。 我们的研究为最近美国公职人员的级联流失提供了解释，并从动态系统视角提出了潜在的政策干预措施。 我们认为，关键机构中个体之间的微观层面异质性会导致宏观尺度上选举支持系统的脆弱性。 我们的分析提供了比较统计数据，用于衡量系统在针对骚扰、虚假信息运动和其他敌对操纵方面的脆弱性，这些现在更容易扩展和部署。 我们的分析还为旨在保留公职人员和提高选民投票率的政策干预提供了指导。 我们展示了如何在人口层面分配有限的资源（例如，对公职人员的薪资激励和有针对性的干预以提高选民投票率），以改善这些结果并最大限度地增强民主韧性。 一方面，结构和个体异质性导致系统脆弱性，敌对行为者可以利用这种脆弱性，但也为有效的干预提供了机会，这些干预可以从有限和局部行动中带来显著的全球改进。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We focus on the potential fragility of democratic elections given modern information-communication technologies (ICT) in the Web 2.0 era. Our work provides an explanation for the cascading attrition of public officials recently in the United States and offers potential policy interventions from a dynamic system's perspective. We propose that micro-level heterogeneity across individuals within crucial institutions leads to vulnerabilities of election support systems at the macro scale. Our analysis provides comparative statistics to measure the fragility of systems against targeted harassment, disinformation campaigns, and other adversarial manipulations that are now cheaper to scale and deploy. Our analysis also informs policy interventions that seek to retain public officials and increase voter turnout. We show how limited resources (for example, salary incentives to public officials and targeted interventions to increase voter turnout) can be allocated at the population level to improve these outcomes and maximally enhance democratic resilience. On the one hand, structural and individual heterogeneity cause systemic fragility that adversarial actors can exploit, but also provide opportunities for effective interventions that offer significant global improvements from limited and localized actions.