标题： 民主韧性与社会技术冲击 显示英文标题

标题： Democratic Resilience and Sociotechnical Shocks

摘要： 我们关注现代信息技术（ICT）在Web 2.0时代下民主选举的潜在脆弱性。 我们的研究为近期美国公共官员大规模辞职现象提供了一种解释，并从动态系统的角度提出了可能的政策干预措施。 我们提出，关键机构内个体间的微观层面异质性会导致宏观层面上选举支持系统的脆弱性。 我们的分析提供了比较统计数据，用以衡量系统针对目标骚扰、虚假信息传播以及其他敌对操纵的脆弱程度，这些操作如今更容易被扩展和实施。 我们的分析还为保留公共官员和提高选民投票率的政策干预提供了参考。 我们展示了如何在人口层面上分配有限资源（例如，向公共官员提供薪资激励以及针对提高选民投票率的干预措施），以改善这些结果并最大化增强民主韧性。 一方面，结构与个体的异质性导致了系统性的脆弱性，可被恶意行为者利用，但同时也为通过有限且局部化的行动带来显著全球性改进的有效干预提供了机会。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We focus on the potential fragility of democratic elections given modern information-communication technologies (ICT) in the Web 2.0 era. Our work provides an explanation for the cascading attrition of public officials recently in the United States and offers potential policy interventions from a dynamic system's perspective. We propose that micro-level heterogeneity across individuals within crucial institutions leads to vulnerabilities of election support systems at the macro scale. Our analysis provides comparative statistics to measure the fragility of systems against targeted harassment, disinformation campaigns, and other adversarial manipulations that are now cheaper to scale and deploy. Our analysis also informs policy interventions that seek to retain public officials and increase voter turnout. We show how limited resources (for example, salary incentives to public officials and targeted interventions to increase voter turnout) can be allocated at the population level to improve these outcomes and maximally enhance democratic resilience. On the one hand, structural and individual heterogeneity cause systemic fragility that adversarial actors can exploit, but also provide opportunities for effective interventions that offer significant global improvements from limited and localized actions.