标题： 起诉复杂犯罪网络：一种多层ERGMs方法用于CICIG的司法案件 显示英文标题

标题： Prosecution of complex criminal networks: a multilevel ERGMs approach to CICIG's judicial cases

摘要： 检察官在打击有组织犯罪中至关重要，他们负责决定起诉、目标选择以及构建归责策略。 尽管其重要性，这些策略的配置在实证研究中仍缺乏探索。 本研究利用多层次网络方法分析由危地马拉国际反有罪不罚委员会（CICIG）调查的案例，以检查针对犯罪网络的法律干预措施。 该研究采用多层次指数随机图模型（ERGM），整合了三个网络：涉及非法活动的行为者犯罪网络，法律框架网络代表犯罪行为，起诉网络将行为者与犯罪行为连接起来。 这种方法识别了个体行为者和共犯的起诉策略中的结构模式。 研究结果表明，三角形配置具有很强的倾向性，即两个共犯与一个共同犯罪相关联。 此外，个人更可能参与多种犯罪行为，涵盖与腐败相关的和非腐败相关的活动，而不是类似类型的犯罪行为。 这突显了在相互关联的网络中应对多样化犯罪行为的战略重点。 值得注意的是，通过捕捉法律框架、犯罪网络和起诉策略之间的相互作用，本研究的发现强调了多层次网络分析在提高法律干预效果方面的价值，突出了检察官在瓦解复杂犯罪网络中的关键作用，并为改善打击有组织犯罪的起诉策略提供了一个新框架。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Prosecutors are essential in combating organized crime, making key decisions about prosecution, target selection, and structuring imputation strategies. Despite their importance, the configuration of these strategies remains empirically underexplored. This study analyzes cases investigated by the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) using a multilevel network approach to examine legal interventions targeting criminal networks. The research employs a multilevel Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM), integrating three networks: the criminal network of actors involved in illegal activities, the legal framework network represents offenses, and the prosecution network connects actors to offenses. This approach identifies structural patterns in prosecutorial strategies for individual actors and co-offenders. Findings show a strong tendency for triangular configurations, where two co-offenders are linked to a shared offense. Additionally, individuals are more likely to be involved in diverse offenses, spanning corruption-related and non-corruption-related activities, than in similar types of offenses. This highlights a strategic focus on addressing varied criminal behaviors within interconnected networks. Notably, by capturing the interplay between legal framework, criminal network, and prosecution strategy, the findings of this study emphasize the value of multilevel network analysis for enhancing the effectiveness of legal interventions, underscore the critical role of prosecutors in dismantling complex criminal networks, and offers a novel framework for improving prosecution strategies in combating organized crime.