标题： 室内环境感染传播的蒙特卡洛模拟 显示英文标题

标题： Monte Carlo Simulations of Infection Spread in Indoor Environment

摘要： 感染在人群中的传播动态自新冠疫情爆发以来受到了广泛关注，许多统计模型已被开发出来。 研究的一个有趣领域是封闭室内环境中的短期动态。 我们使用简单的蒙特卡洛方案对此进行了建模。 我们的模型通常适用于点对点传播的情况，当感染仅在感染者和健康者之间以一定概率发生，即忽略了空气传播和表面传播。 感染传播的概率通过主体之间的距离的简单指数衰减来体现。 对以下两种情况进行模拟：(1) 主体数量恒定的情况和 (2) 由于流入/流出导致主体数量变化的情况。 我们特别关注由于主体数量有限而引起的动态中的大波动。 我们研究的结果可能有助于确定室内环境中的社交距离指导方针。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The dynamics of infection spread in populations has received popular attention since the outbreak of Covid-19 and many statistical models have been developed. One of the interesting areas of research is short-time dynamics in confined, indoor environments. We have modeled this using a simple Monte Carlo scheme. Our model is generally applicable for the peer-to-peer transmission case, when the infection spread occurs only between an infected subject and a healthy subject with a certain probability, i.e., airborne and surface transmission is neglected. The probability of infection spread is incorporated using a simple exponential decay with distance between the subjects. Simulations are performed for the cases of (1) constant subject population and (2) variable subject population due to inflow/outflow. We specifically focus on the large fluctuations in the dynamics due to finite number of subjects. Results of our study may be useful to determine social-distancing guidelines in indoor contexts.