标题： 关于全球地震活动的行星强迫 显示英文标题

标题： On a planetary forcing of global seismicity

摘要： 我们研究了过去124年全球范围内的地震活动时间变化及其潜在驱动因素。 为了实现这一目标，我们构建并分析了自1900年以来震级大于或等于6的地震的平均全球地震活动曲线。 使用奇异谱分析，我们将该曲线分解，并将提取出的伪周期与两个与地球潮汐相关的全球地球物理参数进行比较：一天长度的变化和海平面变化。 我们的结果表明，这三个地球物理现象可以以90%的准确性用最多七个周期成分的总和来解释，这些成分大多与行星历表一致：1年，3.4年（准双年振荡，QBO），$\sim$11年，$\sim$14年，$\sim$18.6年（月球节点周期），$\sim$33年，以及$\sim$60年。 我们在拉普拉斯理论框架内讨论了这些结果，特别关注地震活动、一天长度变化和海平面变化之间的相位关系，以进一步阐明潜在的物理机制。 最后，结合地震发生区的观测，我们提出了一种基于固体地球-水圈相互作用的触发机制，强调水-岩相互作用在调节地震发生中的关键作用。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We have explored the temporal variability of the seismicity at global scale over the last 124 years, as well as its potential drivers. To achieve this, we constructed and analyzed an averaged global seismicity curve for earthquakes of magnitude equal or greater than 6 since 1900. Using Singular Spectrum Analysis, we decomposed this curve and compared the extracted pseudo-cycles with two global geophysical parameters associated with Earth's tides: length-of-day variations and sea-level changes. Our results reveal that these three geophysical phenomena can be be explained with 90% accuracy, as the sum of up to seven periodic components, largely aligned with planetary ephemerides: 1 year, 3.4 years (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, QBO), $\sim$11 years, $\sim$14 years, $\sim$18.6 years (lunar nodal cycle), $\sim$33 years, and $\sim$60 years. We discuss these results in the framework of Laplace's theory, with a particular focus on the phase relationships between seismicity, length-of-day variations, and sea-level changes to further elucidate the underlying physical mechanisms. Finally,integrating observations from seismogenic regions, we propose a trigger mechanism based on solid Earth-hydrosphere interactions, emphasizing the key role of water-rock interactions in modulating earthquake occurrence.