标题： 缅因州的林业和伐木产业：建立一个预测模型 显示英文标题

标题： Maine's Forestry and Logging Industry: Building a Model for Forecasting

摘要： 从2000年到2017年，缅因州64%的纸浆和造纸加工厂关闭；这些关闭对缅因州及更广泛地区的社区产生了有害影响。 这项研究提出的一个问题是，缅因州林业和采伐业的关键宏观经济及相关变量在未来将如何变化？ 为了解答这个问题，我们使用向量误差修正（VEC模型）预测关键宏观经济及相关变量，以评估缅因州林业和采伐业过去的经济贡献并预测未来的经济贡献。 预测结果表明，尽管由于价格水平和产出略有增加，该行业在缅因州的贡献可能会保持稳定，但由于就业和企业数量的减少，缅因州的当地社区可能会变得更差。 随后，我们将这些预测纳入一个三阶段建模过程，以分析由于关税增加导致汇率出现负面冲击会对缅因州的就业和产出产生什么影响。 我们的结果表明，关税的增加将减少缅因州的产出并增加就业的波动性。 日益增加的不确定性和经营成本表明，在调整关税和贸易限制时应谨慎行事，特别是当经营变化可能损害市场和社区时。 显示英文摘要

摘要： From 2000 to 2017, 64% of Maine's pulp and paper processing mills shut down; these closures resulted in harmful effects to communities in Maine and beyond. One question this research asks is how will key macroeconomic and related variables for Maine's forestry and logging industry change in the future? To answer this, we forecast key macroeconomic and related variables with a vector error correction (VEC model) to assess past and predict future economic contributions from Maine's forestry and logging industry. The forecasting results imply that although the contribution of the industry in Maine would likely remain stable due to level prices and a slight increase in output, local Maine communities could be worse off due to decreases in employment and firms. We then incorporated these forecasts into a 3-stage modeling process to analyze how a negative shock to exchange rates from an increase in tariffs could affect Maine's employment and output. Our results suggest that increased tariffs will reduce output and increase employment volatility in Maine. Rising uncertainty and costs of business operations suggest care should be taken when changing tariffs and trade restrictions, especially when changes to business operations can harm markets and communities.