标题： 供应链网络和金融系统的综合气候压力测试与全国企业层面的排放估算 显示英文标题

标题： Combined climate stress testing of supply-chain networks and the financial system with nation-wide firm-level emission estimates

摘要： 在迈向碳中和的过程中，气候压力测试为气候变化对经济和金融体系的物理风险和转型风险提供了估算。 缺失的企业层面二氧化碳排放数据严重阻碍了对来自碳定价的转型风险的评估。 基于所有匈牙利企业（410,523家）的个体排放量（从其化石燃料采购中估算得出），我们对实际和假设的碳定价政策进行了压力测试。 使用一个简单的1:1经济代理模型，并引入新的碳-利润比率，我们识别出变得无利可图并违约的企业，并估算相应的贷款核销。 我们发现，所有公司中有45%直接受到碳定价的影响。 在每吨45欧元的价格下，预计直接经济损失占总销售额的1.3%，银行权益损失占1.2%。 供应链网络中的二次违约级联可能使这些损失增加300%至4000%，具体取决于企业替代关键投入的能力。 为了减少转型风险，企业应减少对高二氧化碳暴露供应链中关键投入的依赖。 我们讨论了不同政策实施对这些转型风险的影响。 显示英文摘要

摘要： On the way towards carbon neutrality, climate stress testing provides estimates for the physical and transition risks that climate change poses to the economy and the financial system. Missing firm-level CO2 emissions data severely impedes the assessment of transition risks originating from carbon pricing. Based on the individual emissions of all Hungarian firms (410,523), as estimated from their fossil fuel purchases, we conduct a stress test of both actual and hypothetical carbon pricing policies. Using a simple 1:1 economic ABM and introducing the new carbon-to-profit ratio, we identify firms that become unprofitable and default, and estimate the respective loan write-offs. We find that 45% of all companies are directly exposed to carbon pricing. At a price of 45 EUR/t, direct economic losses of 1.3% of total sales and bank equity losses of 1.2% are expected. Secondary default cascades in supply chain networks could increase these losses by 300% to 4000%, depending on firms' ability to substitute essential inputs. To reduce transition risks, firms should reduce their dependence on essential inputs from supply chains with high CO2 exposure. We discuss the implications of different policy implementations on these transition risks.