标题： 自然灾害风险对全球绿色氢成本的显著影响 显示英文标题

标题： The Striking Impact of Natural Hazard Risk on Global Green Hydrogen Cost

摘要： 由于气候变化，影响能源基础设施的自然灾害在未来将变得更加频繁。 然而，为了将自然灾害风险纳入基础设施投资决策，我们开发了一种方法，将这种风险转化为折现率。 因此，我们新开发的折现率方法同时包含了经济风险和自然灾害风险。 为了说明包括自然灾害风险的影响，我们应用了针对各国的折现率来计算氢气生产成本。 与仅包含经济风险的折现率相比，各国氢气生成成本的相对差异从菲律宾的96%盈余到吉尔吉斯斯坦的-63%成本降低不等。 包括自然灾害风险改变了能源系统模型的结果中技术的成本排名，从而改变了政策建议。 本文公布了全球254个国家的衍生折现率，以供进一步使用。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Due to climate change, natural hazards that affect energy infrastructure will become more frequent in the future. However, to incorporate natural hazard risk into infrastructure investment decisions, we develop an approach to translate this risk into discount rates. Thus, our newly developed discount rate approach incorporates both economic risk and natural hazard risk. To illustrate the impact of including the risk of natural hazards, we apply country-specific discount rates for hydrogen production costs. The country-specific relative difference in hydrogen generation cost ranges from a 96% surplus in the Philippines to a -63% cost reduction in Kyrgyzstan compared to a discount rate that only consists of economic risks. The inclusion of natural hazard risk changes the cost ranking of technologies as outcome of energy system models and thus policy recommendations. The derived discount rates for 254 countries worldwide are published in this publication for further use.