标题： 考虑天气不确定性和核电站故障的鲁棒能源系统建模：北欧案例研究 显示英文标题

标题： Modeling Robust Energy Systems Considering Weather Uncertainty and Nuclear Power Failures: A Case Study in Northern Europe

摘要： 用于政策支持的容量扩展模型越来越多地代表了天气依赖型发电（风能和太阳能）的可变性和不确定性。 然而，尽管同样具有不确定性，正如2022年法国核电舰队的表现所证明的那样，由核电厂停运引起的不确定性在文献中很大程度上被忽视了。 本文提出了首个考虑核电厂因非计划停运导致可用性不确定性的容量扩展模型。 我们提出了一种数学模型，结合了基于情景的随机优化方法（用于处理与天气相关的不确定性）和数据驱动的可调式鲁棒优化方法（用于处理与核电厂故障相关的不确定性）。 鲁棒模型代表了核电厂的粗放行为，这些大型（1吉瓦）机组要么运行要么停机，同时允许模型决定最优的核电厂容量。 我们在一个针对北欧地区（七个节点）的案例中测试了该模型，时间分辨率为1250个时间步长。 我们的研究结果表明，如果不在规划阶段考虑核电厂停运，确实会对能源系统造成脆弱性。 我们提出的模型表现良好，在极端天气条件下甚至可以防止负荷损失（以0.6%的稳健性为代价），并找到解决方案。 稳健的解决方案的特点是燃气电厂的容量较高，但令人惊讶的是，核电厂容量几乎没有受到影响。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Capacity expansion models used for policy support have increasingly represented both the variability and uncertainty of weather-dependent generation (wind and solar). However, although also uncertain, as demonstrated by the performance of the French nuclear power fleet in 2022, uncertainty arising from nuclear power outages has been largely neglected in the literature. This paper presents the first capacity expansion model that considers uncertainty in nuclear power availability caused by unplanned outages. We propose a mathematical model that combines a scenario-based stochastic optimization approach (to deal with weather-related uncertainties) with a data-driven adjustable robust optimization approach (to deal with nuclear failure-related uncertainties). The robust model represents the bulky behavior of nuclear power plants, with large (1 GW) units that are either on or off, while at the same time letting the model decide on the optimal amount of nuclear capacity. We tested the model in a case for Northern Europe (seven nodes) with a time resolution of 1250 time steps. Our findings show that nuclear power outages do, in fact, impose a vulnerability on the energy system if not considered in the planning phase. Our proposed model performs well and finds solutions that prevent Loss-of-Load (at a price of robustness of 0.6%), even in more extreme weather conditions. Robust solutions are characterized by a higher capacity of gas plants, but, perhaps surprisingly, nuclear power capacity is barely affected.