标题： 长期存储、天气不确定性与有限的远见 显示英文标题

标题： On long-duration storage, weather uncertainty and limited foresight

摘要： 长时储能（LDES）是基于风能和太阳能的完全可再生、跨部门耦合能源系统的关键组成部分。尽管容量扩展规划已经开始考虑年际天气变异性，但它通常忽略了容量和运行决策中的天气不确定性以及有限的预见性。我们构建了一个随机容量扩展模型，用于考虑天气不确定性的情况下研究欧洲脱碳能源系统的LDES（在该模型中通过与完美预见基准的对比来隔离有限预见的影响）。在有限预见的情况下，LDES作为一种对极端系统状态的对冲手段，采取防御性操作，并表现出在完美预见下不存在的囤积效应。太阳能光伏因其更高的可预测性而在系统中的价值增加，其容量比基准高出多达25%，而陆上风电容量则较低。我们通过推导隐含的LDES投标曲线揭示了背后的机制。我们表明，LDES投标反映了极端系统状态的成本及其在当前系统状态下天气依赖的概率。这对可再生能源电力市场的价格形成具有重要意义，因为广泛的连续概率LDES投标缓解了高可再生能源份额时极端价格差异的担忧。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Long-duration energy storage (LDES) is a key component for fully renewable, sector-coupled energy systems based on wind and solar. While capacity expansion planning has begun to take into account interannual weather variability, it often ignores weather uncertainty and limited foresight in capacity and operational decisions. We build a stochastic capacity expansion model for fully decarbonized energy systems with LDES in Europe accounting for weather uncertainty - isolating the effect of limited foresight by comparing it to a perfect foresight benchmark. Under limited foresight, LDES acts as a hedge against extreme system states operating defensively and exhibiting a stockpiling effect absent under perfect foresight. Solar PV gains in system value for its higher predictability with up to 25% higher capacities versus the benchmark while onshore wind capacities are lower. We shed light on the underlying mechanisms by deriving implicit LDES bidding curves. We show that LDES bids reflect the costs and the weather-dependent probability of extreme system states conditional on the current system state. This has important implications for the price formation on renewable electricity markets, as a wide and continuous range of probabilistic LDES bids alleviates concerns of extreme price disparity at high renewable shares.