标题： 系统盲目的产消者在能源模型中的影响 显示英文标题

标题： Effects of system-blind prosumers in energy models

摘要： 参与发电和存储屋顶光伏装置所产生电力的产消者家庭在全球各地的电力市场中扮演着越来越重要的角色。由于零售电价通常无法向家庭传达波动的批发价格信号，并且许多国家智能电表的普及率较低，产消者并不一定会以系统友好的方式自我消费和并网太阳能电力。能源系统模型通常忽略这种无视系统的操作行为，这些模型很少考虑产消者的存在。在本文中，我们将一个校准过的自发电约束嵌入到一个线性扩容模型中，以近似产消者最小化电费的激励机制。我们将该方法应用于2030年的德国案例研究，该研究包括与电池电动汽车的部门耦合。我们展示，通过参数化自发电约束，使产消者的电费尽可能低，可以很好地近似产消者的决策，适用于广泛的电价方案。基于此，我们量化了那些不考虑产消者的能源模型中可能出现的扭曲。对于我们的案例研究，如果包括产消者约束，最优电池存储容量最多增加200%。主要驱动因素是家用电池和公用事业规模电池之间的替代性不完美。我们得出结论，能源系统模型可以从实施这一简单方法中受益。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Prosumer households that generate and store electricity from rooftop PV installations play an increasing role in electricity markets around the world. As retail tariffs usually do not convey time-varying wholesale price signals to households and the rollout of smart meters is low in many countries, prosumers do not necessarily self-consume and feed-in solar electricity in a system-friendly way. The effects of such system-blind behaviours are typically neglected in energy system models, which rarely account for prosumers. In this paper, we embed a calibrated self-generation constraint into a linear capacity expansion model to approximate the incentives of prosumers to minimise their electricity bills. We apply our method to a German case study for 2030 featuring sector coupling with battery electric vehicles. We show that parametrising the self-generation constraint such that the prosumer electricity bill is as low as possible approximates prosumer decisions well for a broad range of tariff schemes. Based on this, we quantify distortions that might arise in energy models that do not account for prosumers. For our case study, we find that the optimal battery storage capacity increases by up to 200% if prosumer constraints are included. The main driver is the imperfect substitutability between home and utility-scale batteries. We conclude that energy system models could benefit from implementing this straightforward method.