标题： 基于时间尺度的地震预报ETAS模型 显示英文标题

标题： A Time-Scaled ETAS Model for Earthquake Forecasting

摘要： 喜马拉雅地区，特别是尼泊尔，极易受到频繁且强烈的地震活动影响，这凸显了建立强大地震预报模型的紧迫性。 本研究介绍了一组专为尼泊尔地震预测设计的时间尺度化Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence（ETAS）模型，利用了2000年至2020年的地震数据。 通过采用替代的时间尺度方法——如校准、比例风险、对数线性和幂时间尺度——这些模型能够捕捉余震微妙的时间模式，从而改善背景事件与触发事件之间的分类。 我们评估了在不同地震震级分布假设（指数、伽马和径向对称）下模型的表现，并使用优化技术，包括Davidon-Fletcher-Powell算法和迭代随机去聚类法。 结果显示，时间尺度化显著提高了模型的可解释性和预测准确性，其中基于ISDM的ETAS模型表现最佳。 这项工作不仅深化了对尼泊尔地震动力学的统计理解，也为在地震活跃地区实施更有效的早期预警系统奠定了基础。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The Himalayan region, particularly Nepal, is highly susceptible to frequent and severe seismic activity, underscoring the urgent need for robust earthquake forecasting models. This study introduces a suite of time-scaled Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models tailored for earthquake forecasting in Nepal, leveraging seismic data from 2000 to 2020. By incorporating alternative time-scaling approaches - such as calibration, proportional hazards, log-linear, and power time scales - the models capture nuanced temporal patterns of aftershocks, improving event classification between background and triggered occurrences. We evaluate model performance under various assumptions of earthquake magnitude distributions (exponential, gamma, and radially symmetric) and employ optimization techniques including the Davidon-Fletcher-Powell algorithm and Iterative Stochastic De-clustering. The results reveal that time-scaling significantly enhances model interpretability and predictive accuracy, with the ISDM-based ETAS model achieving the best fit. This work not only deepens the statistical understanding of earthquake dynamics in Nepal but also lays a foundation for implementing more effective early warning systems in seismically active regions.