标题： 用半参数和混合效应方法剖析参与福利计划的障碍 显示英文标题

标题： Disentangling Barriers to Welfare Program Participation with Semiparametric and Mixed Effect Approaches

摘要： 本文考察了为何符合条件的家庭不参与福利项目。假设存在一些观察到的完全注意群体，我们将参与率建模为两个阶段的过程：注意随后是选择。我们通过两种新方法来实现这一点。从随机注意消费者需求估计文献中汲取灵感，方法I是半参数的，具有非参数注意函数和参数选择函数。它使用完全注意的家庭来识别选择效用参数，然后使用整个总体来识别注意概率。通过在方法I中加入一个随机效应，该效应同时影响注意和选择阶段，方法II允许家庭层面未观察到的异质性和注意与选择之间的依赖性，即使是在控制了观察到的协变量之后。应用于NLSY面板数据中的WIC参与情况，这两种方法一致指出了关于异质性政策目标的两个经验发现。（1）随着婴儿年龄接近12个月及更长时间，注意概率急剧下降，而选择概率稳步下降。发现（1）表明，防止退出是提高参与率的关键，因为一旦家庭在婴儿接近12个月时退出项目，由于注意低下，重新加入的可能性很小。预测价值增加的解决方案可以通过减少退出概率来促进参与率。相比之下，预测提高注意的解决方案无效。（2）受过高等教育的家庭注意较少，但若注意，则更有可能注册。发现（2）表明，在高等教育机构中与育儿学生团体一起开展信息宣传活动可能是提高参与率的有效策略。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This paper examines why eligible households do not participate in welfare programs. Under the assumption that there exist some observed fully attentive groups, we model take-up as a two-stage process: attention followed by choice. We do so with two novel approaches. Drawing inspiration from the demand estimation for stochastically attentive consumers literature, Approach I is semiparametric with a nonparametric attention function and a parametric choice function. It uses fully attentive households to identify choice utility parameters and then uses the entire population to identify the attention probabilities. By augmenting Approach I with a random effect that simultaneously affects the attention and choice stages, Approach II allows household-level unobserved heterogeneity and dependence between attention and choice even after conditioning on observed covariates. Applied to NLSY panel data for WIC participation, both approaches consistently point to two empirical findings with regard to heterogeneous policy targeting. (1) As an infant ages towards 12 months and beyond, attention probability drops dramatically while choice probability steadily decreases. Finding (1) suggests that exit-prevention is the key for increasing the take-up rate because once a household exits the program when the infant ages close to 12 months old, it is unlikely to rejoin due to low attention. A value-increasing solution is predicted to be effective in promoting take-up by reducing exit probability. In contrast, an attention-raising solution is predicted to be ineffective. (2) Higher educated households are less attentive but more likely to enroll if attentive. Finding (2) suggests that running informational campaigns with parenting student groups at higher education institutions could be an effective strategy for boosting take-up.