标题： 冲突的潮流：用高斯过程分解冲突趋势 显示英文标题

标题： The Currents of Conflict: Decomposing Conflict Trends with Gaussian Processes

摘要： 我提出了一种估算暴力冲突的时间和空间模式的新方法。 我展示了如何利用高度分时分地域的冲突事件数据与高斯过程相结合来估算时间空间冲突趋势。 这些趋势可以用来深入了解冲突陷阱、扩散以及一般意义上的时间和空间冲突暴露；它们也可以用于控制其他估算任务中的这些现象；最后，该方法允许我们将估算出的时间空间冲突模式外推到未来的时序单元中，从而促进强大的、最先进的冲突预测。 重要的是，这些结果是通过一个相对简洁的框架实现的，仅使用了一个数据源：过去的冲突模式。 显示英文摘要

摘要： I present a novel approach to estimating the temporal and spatial patterns of violent conflict. I show how we can use highly temporally and spatially disaggregated data on conflict events in tandem with Gaussian processes to estimate temporospatial conflict trends. These trends can be studied to gain insight into conflict traps, diffusion and tempo-spatial conflict exposure in general; they can also be used to control for such phenomenons given other estimation tasks; lastly, the approach allow us to extrapolate the estimated tempo-spatial conflict patterns into future temporal units, thus facilitating powerful, stat-of-the-art, conflict forecasts. Importantly, these results are achieved via a relatively parsimonious framework using only one data source: past conflict patterns.