标题： 出口收汇政策：新兴市场对抗汇率波动的屏障？ 显示英文标题

标题： Export proceeds repatriation policies: A shield against exchange rate volatility in emerging markets?

摘要： 我们使用广义综合控制框架，研究了强制出口收益回流政策对三个新兴市场（伊朗、斯里兰卡和土耳其）汇率稳定性的影响。我们将汇率随机波动率建模为感兴趣的结果变量，并控制利率差、汇率制度转变以及通胀率差距等因素，从而解决了未观察到的时间变化混杂因素和异质性治疗效应问题。 我们的估计结果显示，在这三个国家，强制回流政策对汇率波动没有统计上显著的影响。我们还发现，无法拒绝存在非零影响的可能性。 这些结果在广泛的敏感性分析中仍然稳健，包括替代协变量规范和安慰剂检验，从而确认了结果的可靠性。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We examine the impact of mandatory export proceeds repatriation on exchange rate stability in three emerging markets, Iran, Sri Lanka, and Turkey, using the Generalized Synthetic Control framework. By modeling exchange rate stochastic volatility as our outcome of interest and controlling for interest rate differentials, exchange rate regime shifts, and inflation rate gaps, we address both unobserved time-varying confounders and heterogeneous treatment effects. Our estimates reveal no statistically significant impact of repatriation mandates on exchange-rate volatility across the three countries. We also find that we cannot reject the possibility of a non-zero impact. These results remain robust to an extensive range of sensitivity analyses, including alternative covariate specifications and placebo tests, thereby confirming their reliability.