标题： 论文、撤稿和预印本的现状：来自CrossRef数据库（2004-2024）的证据 显示英文标题

标题： The State of Papers, Retractions, and Preprints: Evidence from the CrossRef Database (2004-2024)

摘要： 对CrossRef元数据20年的分析表明，全球学术产出——包括出版物、撤稿和预印本——表现出显著的惯性增长，由指数、二次和逻辑模型很好地描述，拟合度几乎无法区分。 特别是撤稿动态保持稳定，受新冠疫情冲击的影响最小，仅占总通知的不到1%。 自2004年以来，出版物每9.8年翻一番，撤稿每11.4年翻一番，而预印本的增长速度最快，每5.6年翻一番。 这些发现强调了一个在不变结构瓶颈处持续承受压力的系统。 尽管模型预测在2024年后出现分歧，但证据表明，学术交流的未来轨迹将由持续的系统惯性决定，而不是偶发的中断——除非通过政策或人工智能驱动的改革有意引导。 显示英文摘要

摘要： A 20-year analysis of CrossRef metadata demonstrates that global scholarly output -- encompassing publications, retractions, and preprints -- exhibits strikingly inertial growth, well-described by exponential, quadratic, and logistic models with nearly indistinguishable goodness-of-fit. Retraction dynamics, in particular, remain stable and minimally affected by the COVID-19 shock, which contributed less than 1% to total notices. Since 2004, publications doubled every 9.8 years, retractions every 11.4 years, and preprints at the fastest rate, every 5.6 years. The findings underscore a system primed for ongoing stress at unchanged structural bottlenecks. Although model forecasts diverge beyond 2024, the evidence suggests that the future trajectory of scholarly communication will be determined by persistent systemic inertia rather than episodic disruptions -- unless intentionally redirected by policy or AI-driven reform.