标题： 使用共单调性的回归不连续设计外推 显示英文标题

标题： Extrapolation in Regression Discontinuity Design Using Comonotonicity

摘要： 我们提出了一种新的方法，用于在具有多个协变量的精确回归不连续设计中，将因果效应外推到处理与非处理边缘之外。 我们的方法既适用于处理是多个可观测变量函数的情况，也适用于处理基于单一运行变量确定的情况。 我们的关键识别假设是条件平均处理和未处理潜在结果是同向变化的：与较高平均未处理潜在结果相关的协变量值也与较高平均处理潜在结果相关。 我们提供了一种基于局部线性回归的估计方法。 即使同向变化性不成立，我们的估计量也是加权平均因果效应。 我们将这些方法应用于评估反事实的强制暑期学校政策。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We present a novel approach for extrapolating causal effects away from the margin between treatment and non-treatment in sharp regression discontinuity designs with multiple covariates. Our methods apply both to settings in which treatment is a function of multiple observables and settings in which treatment is determined based on a single running variable. Our key identifying assumption is that conditional average treated and untreated potential outcomes are comonotonic: covariate values associated with higher average untreated potential outcomes are also associated with higher average treated potential outcomes. We provide an estimation method based on local linear regression. Our estimands are weighted average causal effects, even if comonotonicity fails. We apply our methods to evaluate counterfactual mandatory summer school policies.