标题： 2024年混合可再生能源预测与交易竞赛 显示英文标题

标题： The Hybrid Renewable Energy Forecasting and Trading Competition 2024

摘要： 混合能源预测与交易竞赛要求参赛者预测并交易2024年英国3.6GW风力和太阳能农场的发电量，持续三个月。 比赛模仿了实际操作，要求参赛者每天提交真实的预测和日前市场报价。 奖项根据Pinball得分衡量的预测表现、根据总收益衡量的交易表现以及基于其他两个赛道排名的综合表现进行颁发。 本文介绍了参赛者的表现分析以及从比赛中获得的经验。 预测赛道再次证明了流行的梯度提升树算法在日前风能和太阳能发电预测中的竞争力，尽管其他方法也取得了良好的结果，但所有情况下的表现都高度依赖于实现方式。 交易赛道提供了关于预测技能与价值之间关系的见解，交易策略和基础预测影响了表现。 所有比赛数据，包括电力生产、天气预测、电力市场数据和参赛者的提交内容均已共享，以便进一步分析和基准测试。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The Hybrid Energy Forecasting and Trading Competition challenged participants to forecast and trade the electricity generation from a 3.6GW portfolio of wind and solar farms in Great Britain for three months in 2024. The competition mimicked operational practice with participants required to submit genuine forecasts and market bids for the day-ahead on a daily basis. Prizes were awarded for forecasting performance measured by Pinball Score, trading performance measured by total revenue, and combined performance based on rank in the other two tracks. Here we present an analysis of the participants' performance and the learnings from the competition. The forecasting track reaffirms the competitiveness of popular gradient boosted tree algorithms for day-ahead wind and solar power forecasting, though other methods also yielded strong results, with performance in all cases highly dependent on implementation. The trading track offers insight into the relationship between forecast skill and value, with trading strategy and underlying forecasts influencing performance. All competition data, including power production, weather forecasts, electricity market data, and participants' submissions are shared for further analysis and benchmarking.