标题： 关于推断决策、错误和路径依赖的注记 显示英文标题

标题： A Note on Inferential Decisions, Errors and Path-Dependency

摘要： 考虑二元结果的标准顺序检验。 相关的信念过程及其客观真实的条件概率对应通常不同，但在定义明确的检验中它们会收敛到相同的目标。 我们证明，除非这两个过程是“本质上相同”的，最多仅相差一个先验因子，否则基于前者的时间齐次连续顺序决策必须相对于基于后者或其他非本质相同的信念过程的状态变量具有路径依赖性。 此外，总推断误差可以分解为两个具有不同且独立特性的组成部分。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Consider the standard sequential testing of a binary outcome. The associated belief process and its objectively true conditional-probability counterpart generally differ, but they converge to the same target in well-defined tests. We show that unless the two processes are 'essentially identical', differing at most by an a priori factor, time-homogeneous continuous sequential decisions based on the former must be path-dependent with respect to state-variables based on the latter or other non-essentially-identical belief processes. Further, total inferential errors decompose into two components with distinct and independent characteristics.