标题： 城市交通动力学中的多稳态和滞回建模 显示英文标题

标题： Modeling Multistability and Hysteresis in Urban Traffic Dynamics

摘要： 越来越多的证据表明，城市道路网络的宏观功能状态表现出多稳态和滞后性，但这些现象背后的微观机制仍然不明确。 在这里，我们证明，在现实世界的城市道路网络中，拥堵道路的恢复过程并非如现有模型所假设的那样是自发的，而是受到相连拥堵道路的阻碍，这种受阻的恢复可能导致城市交通动力学中多稳态和滞后的出现。 通过分析现实世界的城市交通数据，我们观察到单个道路之间的拥堵传播可以用类似流行病的简单传染过程来很好地描述，但与流行病不同，拥堵道路的恢复率会因相邻道路的拥堵而急剧下降。 基于这一微观观察，我们提出了一种拥堵传播和消散的简单模型，并通过平均场方法和数值模拟发现，当恢复阻碍足够强时，我们的模型在道路网络的宏观功能状态之间表现出不连续的相变。 我们的研究结果揭示了恢复过程在网络化系统故障集体动力学中被忽视的作用。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Growing evidence suggests that the macroscopic functional states of urban road networks exhibit multistability and hysteresis, but microscopic mechanisms underlying these phenomena remain elusive. Here, we demonstrate that in real-world road networks, the recovery process of congested roads is not spontaneous, as assumed in existing models, but is hindered by connected congested roads, and such hindered recovery can lead to the emergence of multistability and hysteresis in urban traffic dynamics. By analyzing real-world urban traffic data, we observed that congestion propagation between individual roads is well described by a simple contagion process like an epidemic, but the recovery rate of a congested road decreases drastically by the congestion of the adjacent roads unlike an epidemic. Based on this microscopic observation, we proposed a simple model of congestion propagation and dissipation, and found that our model shows a discontinuous phase transition between macroscopic functional states of road networks when the recovery hindrance is strong enough through a mean-field approach and numerical simulations. Our findings shed light on an overlooked role of recovery processes in the collective dynamics of failures in networked systems.