标题： 一种用于退休资金的税款高效模型预测控制策略 显示英文标题

标题： A Tax-Efficient Model Predictive Control Policy for Retirement Funding

摘要： 退休资金问题涉及如何管理退休人员的储蓄，以在其一生中提供持续的税后通货膨胀调整后的消费。 这包括从具有不同税务处理的多个账户中选择提款和转账，考虑到基本规则，如强制性最低分配和Roth转换限制、额外收入、负债、税收以及退休人员去世时的遗产。 我们分两步开发一种退休资金政策。 在第一步中，我们考虑一个简化的规划问题，在这个问题中，各种未来的数量，如退休人员的剩余寿命、未来的投资回报和未来的通货膨胀，都是已知的。 使用简化的税收模型，我们将这个规划问题表述为一个凸优化问题，目标是在提供恒定的通货膨胀调整消费目标的前提下最大化遗产。 由于这个问题是凸的，可以快速且可靠地解决。 我们利用这种规划方法来形成一种退休资金政策，该政策根据当时已知的信息确定每年采取的行动。 每年，退休人员都会根据当前的账户价值和预期寿命，以及可选的更新信息（如税率或规则的变化）为未来几年制定新的计划。 然后，退休人员执行当前计划的第一年的行动。 这种更新-规划-执行的循环每年重复一次，这是一种称为模型预测控制（MPC）的通用政策。 MPC退休政策会响应不确定的投资回报和通货膨胀的影响，退休人员预期寿命或外部收入和负债的变化，以及税收规则和税率的变化。 我们使用蒙特卡洛模拟来展示MPC退休政策的有效性。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The retirement funding problem addresses the question of how to manage a retiree's savings to provide her with a constant post-tax inflation adjusted consumption throughout her lifetime. This consists of choosing withdrawals and transfers from and between several accounts with different tax treatments, taking into account basic rules such as required minimum distributions and limits on Roth conversions, additional income, liabilities, taxes, and the bequest when the retiree dies. We develop a retirement funding policy in two steps. In the first step, we consider a simplified planning problem in which various future quantities, such as the retiree's remaining lifetime, future investment returns, and future inflation, are known. Using a simplified model of taxes, we pose this planning problem as a convex optimization problem, where we maximize the bequest subject to providing a constant inflation adjusted consumption target. Since this problem is convex, it can be solved quickly and reliably. We leverage this planning method to form a retirement funding policy that determines the actions to take each year, based on information known at that time. Each year the retiree forms a new plan for the future years, using the current account values and life expectancy, and optionally, updated information such as changes in tax rates or rules. The retiree then carries out the actions from the first year of the current plan. This update-plan-act cycle is repeated each year, a general policy called model predictive control (MPC). The MPC retirement policy reacts to the effects of uncertain investment returns and inflation, changes in the retiree's expected lifetime or external income and liabilities, and changes in tax rules and rates. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the MPC retirement policy using Monte Carlo simulation.