标题： 评估空间天气缓解投资决策的经济效益：来自新西兰的证据 显示英文标题

标题： Assessing the economic benefits of space weather mitigation investment decisions: Evidence from Aotearoa New Zealand

摘要： 空间天气事件对现代经济构成日益增长的威胁，但其宏观经济影响仍研究不足。 本研究首次针对奥特亚罗瓦新西兰的地磁风暴影响进行了专门的经济评估，量化了由于极端日冕物质抛射（CME）导致的七种中断和缓解情景下的潜在GDP损失。 主要关注地磁感应电流（GICs）对电力传输网络的破坏性影响。 目标是通过提供其潜在经济效益的一阶近似值，支持围绕空间天气缓解投资的决策。 我们发现，在没有缓解措施的情况下，一次严重但现实的风暴可能导致高达83.6亿新元的GDP损失，其中一半以上来自连锁供应链效应。 然而，即使较不严重的场景也会造成超过30亿新元的损失。 重要的是，以研究为导向的操作策略，如优化切换和孤岛运行，仅需花费50万新元即可避免高达3.7亿新元的损失，带来740比1的效益成本比率。 此外，物理防护措施如GIC阻断设备可将中断降低至11.2亿新元，避免的GDP损失高达23亿新元，效益成本回报率高达80比1。 当考虑到未建模的影响，包括数十亿资本设备损失和长期收入损失时，预先缓解的经济合理性变得更加重要。 未来的研究需要将资本和收入损失的建模整合到战略重要的工业设施中。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Space weather events pose a growing threat to modern economies, yet their macroeconomic consequences still remain underexplored. This study presents the first dedicated economic assessment of geomagnetic storm impacts on Aotearoa New Zealand, quantifying potential GDP losses across seven disruption and mitigation scenarios due to an extreme coronal mass ejection (CME). The primary focus is upon the damaging impacts of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) on the electrical power transmission network. The goal is to support decision-making around space weather mitigation investments by providing a first-order approximation of their potential economic benefits. We find that in the absence of mitigation, a severe but realistic storm could result in up to NZ\$8.36 billion in lost GDP, with more than half stemming from cascading supply chain effects. Yet, even less severe scenarios incur losses exceeding NZ\$3 billion. Importantly, research-led operational strategies, such as optimized switching and islanding, can avoid up to NZ\$370 million in losses for as little as NZ\$500,000 in expenditure, delivering a benefit-cost ratio of 740 to 1. Moreover, physical protections such as GIC blocking devices further reduce disruption to as low as NZ\$1.12 billion, with avoided GDP losses up to NZ\$2.3 billion, and benefit-cost returns up to 80 to 1. When also acknowledging unmodelled impacts, including multi-billion losses in capital equipment and long-term revenue, the economic rationale for pre-emptive mitigation becomes even more pertinent. Future research needs to integrate the modelling of capital and revenue losses for strategically important industrial facilities.