标题： 安慰剂断点设计 显示英文标题

标题： Placebo Discontinuity Design

摘要： 标准回归不连续设计（RDD）模型依赖于在断点处期望潜在结果的连续性。 标准的连续性假设可能因运行变量的战略性操控而被破坏，当断点广为人知且感兴趣处理是一种社会项目或政府福利时，这种情况是现实的。 在这项工作中，我们通过利用一个安慰剂处理和一个安慰剂结果，在这种违反情况下识别处理效应。 我们引入了一个局部工具变量估计量。 我们的估计量分解为两个部分：目标结果不连续性的标准RDD估计量，以及基于安慰剂结果不连续性的新调整项。 我们证明了我们的估计量是一致的，并证明了一种稳健的偏差校正推断过程。 我们的方法扩展了RDD在断点周围存在战略性行为的情况下的适用性，这在社会科学中很常见。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Standard regression discontinuity design (RDD) models rely on the continuity of expected potential outcomes at the cutoff. The standard continuity assumption can be violated by strategic manipulation of the running variable, which is realistic when the cutoff is widely known and when the treatment of interest is a social program or government benefit. In this work, we identify the treatment effect despite such a violation, by leveraging a placebo treatment and a placebo outcome. We introduce a local instrumental variable estimator. Our estimator decomposes into two terms: the standard RDD estimator of the target outcome's discontinuity, and a new adjustment term based on the placebo outcome's discontinuity. We show that our estimator is consistent, and we justify a robust bias-corrected inference procedure. Our method expands the applicability of RDD to settings with strategic behavior around the cutoff, which commonly arise in social science.