标题： 在可观测空间中将天体物理模型与引力波数据进行比较 显示英文标题

标题： Comparing astrophysical models to gravitational-wave data in the observable space

摘要： 将人口合成模型与引力波天文学中的分层贝叶斯推断结果进行比较，需要对拟合数据的模型的有效域有深入的理解。 这种比较通常使用推断出的天体物理分布：从收集的数据中，去卷积选择效应以重建生成的人口分布。 在本信中，我们展示了直接比较可观察人口的好处。 在这种方法中，模型的有效域被简单地遵守，因此只有由感兴趣的天体物理模型预测的相关参数空间区域才对比较做出贡献。 我们澄清了无偏推断可观察致密双星人口确实是可能的。 关键的是，这种方法仍然需要包含选择效应，但方式不同于标准实现。 我们将我们的可观测空间重构应用于LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA第三次观测运行的数据，并通过将其结果与基准人口合成模型的预测进行比较来说明其潜力。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Comparing population-synthesis models to the results of hierarchical Bayesian inference in gravitational-wave astronomy requires a careful understanding of the domain of validity of the models fitted to data. This comparison is usually done using the inferred astrophysical distribution: from the data that were collected, one deconvolves selection effects to reconstruct the generating population distribution. In this letter, we demonstrate the benefits of instead comparing observable populations directly. In this approach, the domain of validity of the models is trivially respected, such that only the relevant parameter space regions as predicted by the astrophysical models of interest contribute to the comparison. We clarify that unbiased inference of the observable compact-binary population is indeed possible. Crucially, this approach still requires incorporating selection effects, but in a manner that differs from the standard implementation. We apply our observable-space reconstruction to LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA data from their third observing run and illustrate its potential by comparing the results to the predictions of a fiducial population-synthesis model.