标题： 预测稳定性对导航尾迹规避的影响 显示英文标题

标题： Impact of Forecast Stability on Navigational Contrail Avoidance

摘要： 通过重新引导航班绕过形成尾迹云的区域，可以减轻尾迹云引起的变暖，这需要对对流层上部和下平流层的状态进行准确且稳定的预测。 预测稳定性（即不同提前时间的预测周期之间的一致性）对于“准战术”尾迹云规避策略尤为重要，这些策略基于提前时间长达24-48小时的预测来调整航线。 然而，迄今为止尚无研究系统地量化了预测稳定性在多大程度上限制了准战术规避策略的有效性。 本研究通过将使用ECMWF HRES天气预测生成的尾迹云预测（提前时间最长为48小时）与基于ECMWF ERA5再分析数据生成的尾迹云回溯预测进行比较，填补了这一空白。 对预测误差的分析表明，在持续形成尾迹云的区域中，预测与再分析数据之间的逐点一致性较低，逐点误差率与之前在再分析数据和现实情况中比较尾迹云形成区域时发现的误差率相似。 然而，我们还表明，当将预测与再分析数据进行比较，以及将再分析数据与现场测量数据进行比较时，尾迹云形成区域的位置空间误差相对较小。 最后，我们表明，设计一个能够利用相对较小的空间误差的轨迹优化器，使得基于尾迹云预测的飞行轨迹优化可以在最相关于飞行计划的8-24小时提前时间内，通过再分析数据评估，将尾迹云气候强迫减少80-90%，燃油成本增加不超过0.4%。 我们的结果表明，与飞行计划相关的预测具有足够的稳定性，可用于准战术尾迹云规避。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Mitigating contrail-induced warming by re-routing flights around contrail-forming regions requires accurate and stable forecasts of the state of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Forecast stability (i.e., consistency between forecast cycles with different lead times) is particularly important for "pre-tactical" contrail avoidance strategies that adjust routes based on forecasts with lead times as long as 24-48 hours. However, no study to date has systematically quantified the degree to which forecast stability limits the effectiveness of pre-tactical avoidance. This study addresses this gap by comparing contrail forecasts generated using ECMWF HRES weather forecasts with lead times up to 48 hours to contrail hindcasts generated based on ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis. An analysis of forecast errors shows low pointwise consistency between persistent-contrail-forming regions in forecasts and reanalysis, with pointwise error rates similar to those found in previous comparisons of contrail-forming regions in reanalysis and reality. However, we also show that spatial errors in the locations of contrail-forming regions are relatively small, both when forecasts are compared to reanalysis and when reanalysis is compared to in-situ measurements. Finally, we show that designing a trajectory optimizer to take advantage of relatively small spatial errors allows flight trajectory optimizations based on contrail forecasts to reduce contrail climate forcing evaluated based on reanalysis by 80-90% at the 8-24 hour lead times most relevant to flight planning, with fuel penalties under 0.4%. Our results show that forecasts with lead times relevant to flight planning are stable enough to be used for pre-tactical contrail avoidance.