标题： 自然灾害的选举后果：动态固定效应分析 显示英文标题

标题： The Electoral Consequences of Natural Disasters: A Dynamic Fixed-Effects Analysis

摘要： 随着重大自然灾害发生频率的增加，理解其政治后果对于民主问责制至关重要。 现有文献存在深刻分歧，一些研究发现选民会因灾害相关损失而惩罚现任者，而另一些研究则发现选民会因救灾努力而奖励现任者。 本文研究了自然灾害对现任市长的选举后果、更广泛的选举动态以及公职人员长期政治抱负的影响。 该研究利用了1989年至2021年美国市长竞选中超过10,000个候选人-选举观察的综合面板数据集，将详细的选举数据与全球灾害事件登记册相结合。 为了识别因果效应，分析采用了一个稳健的动态双向固定效应事件研究设计，并通过广泛的预趋势和安慰剂测试进行了验证。 研究结果表明，灾害的选举影响在很大程度上取决于其时间。 在选举当季发生的灾害会给现任者带来显著的选举提振，使其得票率提高超过6个百分点。 然而，灾害会持续抑制选民投票率，平均降低1.4个百分点。 一个新颖的发现是，该分析表明管理灾害的经验显著提高了现任者在下一周期寻求连任的可能性，最高可达12个百分点。 这些发现通过强调选民短视和显著性的重要作用，有助于调和关于回顾性投票的冲突理论。 它们还揭示了一种此前未记录的危机塑造政治生涯的渠道，表明灾害管理不仅是治理能力的考验，也是政治抱负的催化剂。 [当前版本为预印本。] 显示英文摘要

摘要： With the increasing frequency of major natural disasters, understanding their political consequences is of paramount importance for democratic accountability. The existing literature is deeply divided, with some studies finding that voters punish incumbents for disaster-related damages, while others find they reward them for relief efforts. This paper investigates the electoral consequences of natural disasters for incumbent mayors, broader electoral dynamics, and the long-term political ambition of officeholders. The study leverages a comprehensive panel dataset of over 10,000 candidate-election observations in U.S. mayoral races from 1989 to 2021, combining detailed election data with a global registry of disaster events. To identify causal effects, the analysis employs a robust dynamic two-way fixed-effects event-study design, validated by extensive pre-trend and placebo tests. The findings reveal that the electoral impact of disasters is highly conditional on their timing. A disaster that strikes in the same quarter as an election provides a significant electoral boost to incumbents, increasing their vote share by over 6 percentage points. However, disasters consistently suppress voter turnout, reducing it by an average of 1.4 percentage points. In a novel finding, the analysis demonstrates that the experience of managing a disaster significantly increases an incumbent's likelihood of seeking re-election in the subsequent cycle by as much as 12 percentage points. These findings help reconcile conflicting theories of retrospective voting by highlighting the critical role of voter myopia and salience. They also reveal a previously undocumented channel through which crises shape political careers, suggesting that disaster management is not only a test of governance but also a catalyst for political ambition. [The current version is a preprint.]