标题： 基于贝叶斯块极值阈值方法的换热管腐蚀评估 显示英文标题

标题： A Bayesian block maxima over threshold approach applied to corrosion assessment in heat exchanger tubes

摘要： 腐蚀对许多工业过程构成障碍，尽管可以直接测量腐蚀，但通常需要统计方法来校正测量误差或在无法获得测量数据时外推腐蚀严重程度的估计值。 本文考虑了换热器管中的腐蚀问题，其中腐蚀通常以每根被检查管的最大蚀坑深度来表示，而只有少数管子被检查，这表明极值理论（EVT）是合适的方法。 然而，在换热器数据的分析中，浅层管最大蚀坑通常不能被视为极端值；尽管之前的EVT方法假设所有数据都是极端的。 我们通过引入一个阈值——建议采用阈值上的块最大值方法，这有助于在模型参数和预测最大蚀坑深度方面进行更稳健的推断。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Corrosion poses a hurdle for numerous industrial processes, and though corrosion can be measured directly, statistical approaches are often required to either correct for measurement error or extrapolate estimates of corrosion severity where measurements are unavailable. This article considers corrosion in heat exchangers tubes, where corrosion is typically reported in terms of maximum pit depth per inspected tube, and only a small proportion of tubes are inspected, suggesting extreme value theory (EVT) as suitable methodology. However, in data analysis of heat exchanger data, shallow tube-maxima pits often cannot be considered as extreme; although previous EVT approaches assume all the data are extreme. We overcome this by introducing a threshold - suggesting a block maxima over threshold approach, which leads to more robust inference around model parameters and predicted maximum pit depth.