标题： 向耦合社会政治事件的理论——行星边界、危机、政策危机和地球系统综合征 显示英文标题

标题： Towards a theory of coupled sociopolitical events-planetary boundaries, crises, policrisis and Earth System syndromes

摘要： 人类活动的影响可以通过行星边界(PBs)来评估，然而到目前为止，尚不清楚如何评估特定的社会政治事件(SPEs)对地球系统(ES)的影响，同时在没有适当框架的情况下，也无法衡量这些影响如何作用于PBs。 在本研究中，我们提出了一种相互作用矩阵模型，将SPEs与PBs联系起来，并考虑可能的演变情景，特别是那些导致危机和多重危机的情景。 我们特别关注PBs根据连续逻辑函数演化的状况，然后考虑一个指数演化的SPE，我们证明它会导致PBs的失控效应。 我们还提出了一种描述、分类和比较社会政治综合征的方法，即由多个多重危机组成的一组现象。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The impact of the human activities can be evaluated by the Planetary Boundaries (PBs), however, so far it is not clear how to assess the influence of specific sociopolitical events (SPEs) on the Earth System (ES) and at the same measure, without a suitable framework, to gauge how these affect the PBs. In this work, we propose an interacting matrix model that couples SPEs with the PBs and consider the possible evolution scenarios and, in particular, those leading to crises and policrisis. We address specifically the situation where the PBs evolve according to the continuous logistic function, and then consider an exponentially-evolving SPE, which we show to cause a runaway effect on the PBs. We also propose a way to describe, classify, and compare sociopolitical syndromes, that is, a set composed of more than a single polycrisis.