标题： 人类灭绝 人口学视角 显示英文标题

标题： Human Extinction A Demographic Perspective

摘要： 预测物种灭绝的研究已经涵盖了多种植物和动物，但就智人而言，除了一个显著的例外情况外，没有预测性研究，只有对可能发生这种情况的可能方式的考虑。 该例外认为智人的灭绝将在10000年后发生。 我们同意灭绝将会发生，但在时间上存在分歧：我们在这里提出的工作表明，如果当前出生率的下降持续下去，人类可能在2394年灭绝。 如果我们考虑劳动年龄人口的缺失和相关服务的崩溃，生存率很可能更低。 鉴于此，灭绝可能在2359年左右发生。 我们还检查了一个生育在2024年结束的情景，结果显示智人将在2134年灭绝。 考虑到社会崩溃，在零生育情景下，灭绝可能在2089年左右发生。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Studies that predict species extinction have focused on a range of flora and fauna but in regard to Homo sapiens there are, with one notable exception, no predictive studies, only considerations of possible ways this may occur. The exception believes extinction of Homo sapiens will happen in 10,000 years. We agree that extinction will happen, but we disagree on the timing: The work we present here suggests that if the current decline in birth rates continues, humans could be extinct by 2394. If we consider the absence of working-age people and the accompanying collapse of services, the survivorship rates would most likely be lower. Given this, it is plausible that extinction could occur around 2359. We also examined a scenario in which births ended in 2024, which revealed that Homo sapiens would become extinct in 2134. Given societal collapse, extinction under the zero births scenario could occur around 2089.