标题： 一般保险公司的气候变化动态财务分析 显示英文标题

标题： Dynamic Financial Analysis (DFA) of General Insurers under Climate Change

摘要： 气候变化预计将在长期内对物理、财务和经济环境产生重大影响，从而对普通保险公司财务健康构成风险。 虽然普通保险公司通常使用动态财务分析（DFA）来全面了解财务影响，但文献中提出的传统DFA并未考虑气候变化的影响。 为解决这一差距，我们引入了一种与气候相关的DFA方法，将气候风险整合到DFA中，提供对气候变化对普通保险业长期影响的全面评估。 所提出的框架有三个关键特征。 首先，它通过在相互关联的结构中考虑不同气候情景下的物理和经济维度，捕捉气候变化对普通保险公司资产和负债的长期影响。 其次，它通过在气候情景分析中使用随机模拟来处理气候变化影响的不确定性，这对于精算应用是有用的。 最后，该框架针对普通保险行业，解决了其独特特点。 为了展示我们模型的实际应用，我们使用澳大利亚数据进行了广泛的实证研究，以评估在各种气候情景下气候变化对普通保险市场长期财务影响。 结果表明，经济增长与物理风险之间的相互作用在塑造普通保险公司风险-回报特征中起着关键作用。 我们框架的局限性得到了深入讨论。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Climate change is expected to significantly affect the physical, financial, and economic environments over the long term, posing risks to the financial health of general insurers. While general insurers typically use Dynamic Financial Analysis (DFA) for a comprehensive view of financial impacts, traditional DFA as presented in the literature does not consider the impact of climate change. To address this gap, we introduce a climate-dependent DFA approach that integrates climate risk into DFA, providing a holistic assessment of the long-term impact of climate change on the general insurance industry. The proposed framework has three key features. First, it captures the long-term impact of climate change on the assets and liabilities of general insurers by considering both physical and economic dimensions across different climate scenarios within an interconnected structure. Second, it addresses the uncertainty of climate change impacts using stochastic simulations within climate scenario analysis that are useful for actuarial applications. Finally, the framework is tailored to the general insurance sector by addressing its unique characteristics. To demonstrate the practical application of our model, we conduct an extensive empirical study using Australian data to assess the long-term financial impact of climate change on the general insurance market under various climate scenarios. The results show that the interaction between economic growth and physical risk plays a key role in shaping general insurers' risk-return profiles. Limitations of our framework are thoroughly discussed.