标题： 通过权限加权邻接矩阵指数化测量勒索软件横向移动易感性 显示英文标题

标题： Measuring Ransomware Lateral Movement Susceptibility via Privilege-Weighted Adjacency Matrix Exponentiation

摘要： 勒索软件的影响取决于入侵者能够多容易地横向移动并传播到最多的资产数量。 我们提出了一种图论方法来衡量横向移动的易感性并估计爆炸半径。 我们构建了一个有向多重图，其中顶点代表资产，边代表它们之间的可访问服务（例如，RDP/SSH）。 我们使用每个服务的pivot potential factor$\pi(s)$来将横向移动建模为一个概率过程。 这使我们能够迭代计算一个$K$跳的妥协概率矩阵，该矩阵捕捉妥协如何在网络中传播。 由此模型得出的指标包括：(1) 横向移动易感性（LMS$_K$）：任意两个资产之间成功横向移动的平均概率（0-1尺度）；以及(2) 爆炸半径估计（BRE$_K$）：在平均攻击场景中被 compromising 的资产的预期百分比。 交互式控制（SSH 22，RDP 3389）的$\pi(s)$高于仅应用端口（MySQL 3306，MSSQL 1433），后者很少能在没有RCE的情况下实现跳板。 在匿名化的企业快照中，修剪高$\pi(s)$边会带来最大的 LMS$_K$/BRE$_K$下降，这与 CISA 指导、MITRE ATT&CK（TA0008：横向移动）和 NIST SP~800-207 一致。 该框架评估（微）分割，并有助于优先考虑减少横向移动易感性和缩小爆炸半径的控制措施。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Ransomware impact hinges on how easily an intruder can move laterally and spread to the maximum number of assets. We present a graph-theoretic method to measure lateral-movement susceptibility and estimate blast radius. We build a directed multigraph where vertices represent assets and edges represent reachable services (e.g., RDP/SSH) between them. We model lateral movement as a probabilistic process using a pivot potential factor $\pi(s)$ for each service. This allows us to iteratively compute a $K$-hop compromise probability matrix that captures how compromise propagates through the network. Metrics derived from this model include: (1) Lateral-Movement Susceptibility (LMS$_K$): the average probability of a successful lateral movement between any two assets (0-1 scale); and (2) Blast-Radius Estimate (BRE$_K$): the expected percentage of assets compromised in an average attack scenario. Interactive control (SSH 22, RDP 3389) gets higher $\pi(s)$ than app-only ports (MySQL 3306, MSSQL 1433), which seldom enable pivoting without an RCE. Across anonymized enterprise snapshots, pruning high-$\pi(s)$ edges yields the largest LMS$_K$/BRE$_K$ drop, aligning with CISA guidance, MITRE ATT\&CK (TA0008: Lateral Movement), and NIST SP~800-207. The framework evaluates (micro)segmentation and helps prioritize controls that reduce lateral movement susceptibility and shrink blast radius.