标题： 雷达极大值：基于校准区域的极端降水概率预报 显示英文标题

标题： Radar Maxima: calibrated area-based probabilistic forecasts for heavy precipitation

摘要： 我们提出、论证并评估了雷达极大值，这是一种针对强降水的校准区域概率预报产品。 其设计旨在克服基于点的预报的固有局限性，这些预报由于空间位移误差，往往对极端事件给出较低的概率。 该方法在40公里邻域内聚合雷达获取的降水量，以统计方式将德国气象局（DWD）的集合系统ICON-D2-EPS的预报进行扩展。 评估同时考虑了客观验证指标以及基于案例研究的操作天气预报员的反馈。 验证显示预测能力、可靠性和预报锐度均有提高。 预报员的评估确认在某些情况下具有操作价值。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We present, motivate, and evaluate Radar Maxima, a calibrated area-based probabilistic forecast product for heavy precipitation. It is designed to overcome inherent limitations of point-based forecasts, which often yield low probabilities for extreme events due to spatial displacement errors. The method aggregates radar-derived precipitation within 40 km neighbourhoods to statistically upscale forecasts from the ensemble system ICON-D2-EPS of DWD. Evaluation considers both objective verification metrics and feedback from operational weather forecasters based on case studies. Verification shows improved predictability, reliability and forecast sharpness. Evaluation of forecasters confirmed operational value in some cases.