标题： 极化和偏见人群中的耦合意见-环境动力学 显示英文标题

标题： Coupled opinion-environmental dynamics in polarized and prejudiced populations

摘要： 公众对环境问题的看法在许多国家仍然存在两极分化，这对有效政策的实施构成了重大障碍。 在这种两极分化背后，实证研究已经确定社会易受影响性、个人偏见和个人经历是形成环境问题观点的主要因素。 然而，目前的耦合人类-环境模型尚未将这三个因素全部纳入两极分化的群体中。 我们开发了一个简化的耦合人类-环境模型，以研究社会易受影响性、个人偏见和个人经历如何在两极分化的群体中塑造观点和环境。 通过分析和数值方法，我们描述了在缓解成本、环境损害以及影响观点形成的因素不同情况下，两极分化、共识、观点变化和循环动力学出现的条件。 我们的模型表明，偏见是持续两极分化的关键驱动因素，即使是有轻微偏见的群体也会独立于其客观性的水平保持无限期的两极分化。 我们预测，通过减少偏见的作用或增加考虑对立观点的意愿，可以减少两极分化。 最后，我们的模型显示，在有偏见的群体中，成本降低方法在减少环境影响方面效果较差。 我们的模型生成了当减少成本或排放更有用的阈值，这取决于影响群体观点形成的因素。 总体而言，我们的模型提供了一个框架，用于研究认知和社会结构在决定人与环境动态中的重要性。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Public opinion on environmental issues remains polarized in many countries, posing a significant barrier to the implementation of effective policies. Behind this polarization, empirical studies have identified social susceptibility, personal prejudice, and personal experience as dominant factors in opinion formation on environmental issues. However, current coupled human-environment models have not yet incorporated all three factors in polarized populations. We developed a stylized coupled human-environment model to investigate how social susceptibility, personal prejudice, and personal experience shape opinion formation and the environment in polarized populations. Using analytical and numerical methods, we characterized the conditions under which polarization, consensus, opinion changes, and cyclic dynamics emerge depending on the costs of mitigation, environmental damage, and the factors influencing opinion formation. Our model shows that prejudice is the key driver of persistent polarization, with even slightly prejudiced populations maintaining indefinite polarization independent of their level of objectivity. We predict that polarization can be reduced by decreasing the role of prejudice or increasing the willingness to consider opposing opinions. Finally, our model shows that cost reduction methods are less effective at reducing environmental impact in prejudiced populations. Our model generates thresholds for when reducing costs or emissions is more useful depending on the factors which influence the population's opinion formation. Overall, our model provides a framework for investigating the importance of cognitive and social structures in determining human-environment dynamics.