标题： 山地收获与逃学：卢旺达作物产量变异与性别学校入学情况 显示英文标题

标题： Harvests and Hooky in the Hills: Crop Yield Variability and Gendered School Enrollment in Rwanda

摘要： 本文研究了农业经济中的家庭在即时生产需求与长期人力资本投资之间的权衡。我们探讨外生农业生产力冲击如何影响卢旺达的初等和中等教育入学情况，卢旺达是一个严重依赖雨养农业同时拥有雄心勃勃的发展目标的国家。使用2010-2021年的地区层面面板数据，我们采用两阶段最小二乘法（2SLS）工具变量策略。合理外生的年降雨量变化被用作卫星衍生的植被健康和农业生产力指标——归一化差异植被指数（NDVI）的工具变量，从而能够对结果进行因果解释。对于初等教育，由于直接成本较低，入学率呈反周期：正向的生产力冲击与较低的入学率相关。值得注意的是，男孩的初等教育入学率被发现比女孩的入学率对这些冲击更敏感。相反，对于需要额外财政支出的中等教育，入学率呈顺周期：正向的生产力冲击导致入学率显著增加。此外，持续的正向冲击与女性中等教育入学率随后的下降有关。结果挑战了之前支持“女孩作为缓冲”假设的区域研究，并探讨了经济冲击持续存在时动态和性别化的反应。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This paper investigates the trade-off that households in agrarian economies face between immediate production needs and long-term human capital investment. We ask how exogenous agricultural productivity shocks affect primary and secondary school enrollment in Rwanda, a country characterized by a heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture alongside ambitious development goals. Using a district-level panel dataset for the years 2010-2021, we employ a two-stage least squares (2SLS) instrumental variable strategy. Plausibly exogenous variation in annual rainfall is used to instrument for a satellite-derived measure of vegetation health and agricultural productivity, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), allowing for a causal interpretation of the results. For primary education, where direct costs are low, enrollment is countercyclical: positive productivity shocks are associated with lower enrollment. Notably, boys' primary enrollment is found to be significantly more elastic to these shocks than girls' enrollment. Conversely, for secondary education, which entails additional financial outlays, enrollment is strongly procyclical. Positive productivity shocks lead to significant increases in enrollment. Further, a sustained positive shock is associated with a subsequent decline in female secondary enrollment. The results challenge previous regional findings supporting the "girls as a buffer" hypothesis and investigate the dynamic and gendered responses to the persistence of economic shocks.