标题： 基于模型的能源转型决策支持中的策略鲁棒性与不确定性 显示英文标题

标题： Policy Robustness & Uncertainty in Model-based Decision Support for the Energy Transition

摘要： 气候政策建模是评估复杂系统中减缓策略的关键工具，不确定性是固有的且不可避免的。 我们提出了一种在气候政策建模中进行广泛不确定性分析的通用方法。 我们展示了模拟器如何识别建模框架中的关键不确定性，并使之前因计算成本而受限的政策分析成为可能。 我们将此方法应用于FTT:Power，以探索电力系统转型中的不确定性，既在全球范围内也在印度，并评估减缓策略对大量政策和技术经济情景的稳健性。 我们发现，转型结果的不确定性比以前显示的要大得多，但强有力的政策可以缩小这些范围。 在全球范围内，发电厂建设时间和电网连接时间主导了转型的不确定性，超过了区域价格政策，包括美国的政策逆转。 太阳能光伏由于低成本而表现出最强的韧性，尽管仍然对融资和基础设施限制敏感。 风能和其他可再生能源则更为脆弱。 在印度，我们发现包含甚至部分淘汰措施的政策组合对关键不确定性具有更大的稳健性，尽管更长的建设时间仍然阻碍政策目标的实现。 我们的结果强调，减少建设时间和逐步淘汰化石燃料对于更快、更稳健的电力部门转型至关重要。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Climate policy modelling is a key tool for assessing mitigation strategies in complex systems and uncertainty is inherent and unavoidable. We present a general methodology for extensive uncertainty analysis in climate policy modelling. We show how emulators can identify key uncertainties in modelling frameworks and enable policy analysis previously restricted by computational cost. We apply this methodology to FTT:Power to explore uncertainties in the electricity system transition both globally and in India and to assess how robust mitigation strategies are to a vast range of policy and techno-economic scenarios. We find that uncertainties in transition outcomes are significantly larger than previously shown, but strong policy can narrow these ranges. Globally, plant construction and grid connection lead times dominate transition uncertainty, outweighing regional price policies, including policy reversals in the US. Solar PV proves most resilient due to low costs, though still sensitive to financing and infrastructure limits. Wind and other renewables are more vulnerable. In India, we find that policy packages including even partial phaseout instruments have greater robustness to key uncertainties although longer lead times still hinder policy goals. Our results highlight that reducing lead times and phasing out fossil fuels are critical for faster, more robust power sector transitions.