标题： 重新思考阿罗-德布鲁：交换、时间与不确定性的新框架 显示英文标题

标题： Rethinking Arrow--Debreu: A New Framework for Exchange, Time, and Uncertainty

摘要： 本文通过有效交易的视角重新审视了Arrow-Debreu一般均衡框架，强调理论市场互动与可实现市场互动之间的区别。 我们提出了有效交易模型（ETM），其中交易源于双边可行性，而非总体供给和需求意愿。 在该框架内，我们建立了价格-需求对应关系的主要性质，并证明了纳什均衡的存在性，同时纳入了生产、货币和网络拓扑结构。 分析扩展到时间、不确定性和开放经济，揭示了可贷资金和汇率如何内生出现。 我们的结果表明，均衡是由交易约束、主观定价和分散谈判塑造的，而不是由普遍的市场出清条件决定的，从而对福利理论的基础提出了质疑。 预期通过条件模式进行建模，捕捉到了有限理性与信息限制，这与理性预期假说形成对比。 因此，ETM为经典一般均衡提供了一个行为和结构上有依据的替代方案，在统一框架内连接了微观基础、货币动态和时间一致性。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This paper revisits the Arrow-Debreu general equilibrium framework through the lens of effective trade, emphasizing the distinction between theoretical and realizable market interactions. We develop the Effective Trade Model (ETM), where transactions arise from bilateral feasibility rather than aggregate supply and demand desires. Within this framework, we establish the main properties of the price-demand correspondence and prove the existence of Nash equilibria, incorporating production, money, and network topology. The analysis extends to time, uncertainty, and open economies, revealing how loanable funds and exchange rates emerge endogenously. Our results show that equilibrium is shaped by transaction constraints, subjective pricing, and decentralized negotiation, rather than by universal market-clearing conditions, and thereby call into question the foundations of welfare theory. Anticipation is modeled via the conditional mode, capturing bounded rationality and information limitations in contrast to the rational expectations hypothesis. The ETM thus offers a behaviorally and structurally grounded alternative to classical general equilibrium, bridging microfoundations, monetary dynamics, and temporal consistency within a unified framework.