标题： 建模 worldwide 流感的传播：基本案例和控制干预措施 显示英文标题

标题： Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions

摘要： 我们研究了全球范围内流感大流行传播及其在全球层面可能的遏制情况，同时考虑了所有可用的航空旅行信息。 我们在全球规模上研究了一个元人口随机流行病模型，该模型考虑了城市间航空旅行流量数据。 我们提供了流行病的时间和空间演变，并对病毒传染性的不同水平以及初始爆发条件（地理和季节方面）进行了敏感性分析。 对于每种传播情景，我们都提供了3100个位于220个不同国家的城市地区的大流行时间线和地理影响。 我们将基线情况与不同的遏制策略进行了比较，包括旅行限制和抗病毒药物的治疗性使用。 我们表明，纳入航空运输对于评估全球暴发的发生概率至关重要。 在所有受影响国家大规模使用抗病毒药物能够缓解第一年基本再生数高达1.9的疫情；通过使用足够供应量来治疗约2%至6%的人口，并结合有效的病例检测和及时的药物分发，可以实现这一效果。 对于传染性极强的病毒（即基本再生数高达2.3），即使假设治疗大约20%人口的供应量，仍有30%-50%的人口被感染。 在抗病毒药物供应有限且基本再生数高达1.9的情况下，我们证明，合作程度越高的策略，在世界各地区的遏制效果越好，包括那些将其资源部分用于全球使用的国家。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal). For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV) drugs. We show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit countries would be able to mitigate a pandemic effect with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9 during the first year; with AV supply use sufficient to treat approximately 2% to 6% of the population, in conjunction with efficient case detection and timely drug distribution. For highly contagious viruses (i.e., a reproductive rate as high as 2.3), even the unrealistic use of supplies corresponding to the treatment of approximately 20% of the population leaves 30%-50% of the population infected. In the case of limited AV supplies and pandemics with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9, we demonstrate that the more cooperative the strategy, the more effective are the containment results in all regions of the world, including those countries that made part of their resources available for global use.