标题： 欧元的尾部行为 显示英文标题

标题： Tail Behaviour of the Euro

摘要： 本文实证分析了欧元相对于其他货币的风险。 将涵盖最终过渡阶段至完全货币联盟的子时期与该时期之前的子时期进行了比较。 使用极端价值理论来估计尾部汇率变动，以检验面对投机攻击的稳定性。 研究结果令人鼓舞。 欧元的共同风险指标与其他货币相比没有显著偏离。 此外，欧元在面对投机压力时表现出稳定性。 例如，研究结果一致表明欧元比日元风险更小，并且与德国马克具有相似的内在风险，而德国马克是欧元实际上所取代的货币。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This paper empirically analyses risk in the Euro relative to other currencies. Comparisons are made between a sub period encompassing the final transitional stage to full monetary union with a sub period prior to this. Stability in the face of speculative attack is examined using Extreme Value Theory to obtain estimates of tail exchange rate changes. The findings are encouraging. The Euro's common risk measures do not deviate substantially from other currencies. Also, the Euro is stable in the face of speculative pressure. For example, the findings consistently show the Euro being less risky than the Yen, and having similar inherent risk to the Deutsche Mark, the currency that it is essentially replacing.