标题： 理解疾病控制：流行病学和经济因素的影响 显示英文标题

标题： Understanding disease control: influence of epidemiological and economic factors

摘要： 我们提出了一种在规则网络上疾病传播的局部扩散模型，并比较了从治疗整个群体到在感染个体的明确邻域内进行局部控制的不同控制选项。 比较是基于流行病的总成本，包括对患病个体的姑息治疗成本和旨在接种疫苗或扑杀易感个体的预防成本。 疾病具有潜伏期阶段，这使得检测和控制变得困难。 三种一般策略浮现出来，分别是全局预防性治疗、特定大小邻域内的局部治疗以及仅进行姑息治疗而没有预防。 策略之间的选择取决于姑息治疗和预防治疗的相对成本。 局部策略的细节，特别是最优治疗邻域的大小，弱依赖于疾病传染性，但强烈依赖于其他流行病学因素。 所需的预防范围与感染邻域的大小成正比，但这种关系取决于检测时间和治疗时间的非线性（幂律）关系。 此外，我们还表明，控制邻域的最佳大小对相对成本非常敏感，尤其是在检测和控制应用效率较低的情况下。 这些结果对于设计针对新兴疾病预防策略具有重要意义，因为这些疾病的参数在事先并不已知。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We present a local spread model of disease transmission on a regular network and compare different control options ranging from treating the whole population to local control in a well-defined neighborhood of an infectious individual. Comparison is based on a total cost of epidemic, including cost of palliative treatment of ill individuals and preventive cost aimed at vaccination or culling of susceptible individuals. Disease is characterized by pre- symptomatic phase which makes detection and control difficult. Three general strategies emerge, global preventive treatment, local treatment within a neighborhood of certain size and only palliative treatment with no prevention. The choice between the strategies depends on relative costs of palliative and preventive treatment. The details of the local strategy and in particular the size of the optimal treatment neighborhood weakly depends on disease infectivity but strongly depends on other epidemiological factors. The required extend of prevention is proportional to the size of the infection neighborhood, but this relationship depends on time till detection and time till treatment in a non-nonlinear (power) law. In addition, we show that the optimal size of control neighborhood is highly sensitive to the relative cost, particularly for inefficient detection and control application. These results have important consequences for design of prevention strategies aiming at emerging diseases for which parameters are not known in advance.