标题： 被忽视的热带病建模复杂性的挑战：资源有限环境中内脏利什曼病动力学评估 显示英文标题

标题： Challenges in Modeling Complexity of Neglected Tropical Diseases: Assessment of Visceral Leishmaniasis Dynamics in Resource Limited Settings

摘要： 被忽视的热带病（NTD），尤其是虫媒疾病（VBD），占全球疾病负担的很大比例，其控制面临多重挑战，包括用于缓解这些疾病影响的人力和财力资源不断减少。 内脏利什曼病（VL）是世界上第二大寄生虫杀手（仅次于疟疾），它影响着地方性国家的贫困人群，并给受影响的个人及其社会带来重大损失。 数学模型可以作为理解一种NTD（如VL）驱动机制的关键工具。 世卫组织提倡综合控制计划以应对VL，但该政策缺乏系统的定量动态证据的支持，因此政策的潜在效益有限。 此外，数学模型可以经济且系统地开发和利用，以理解VL系统的运作。 本研究的重点有三方面：（i）识别在资源匮乏地区持续传播VL的非传统但关键的机制；（ii）回顾用于其他传染病的数学模型，这些模型有可能捕捉到已确定的VL因素；（iii）提出新的量化模型，以理解VL动力学，并评估在实现VL消除目标的框架中的控制计划。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Neglected tropical diseases (NTD), particularly vector-borne diseases (VBD), account for a large proportion of the global disease burden, and their control faces several challenges including diminishing human and financial resources for those distressed from such diseases. Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL), the second-largest parasitic killer in the world (after malaria) affects poor populations in endemic countries and causes considerable cost to the affected individuals and their society. Mathematical models can serve as a critical tool for understanding the driving mechanisms of a NTD such as VL. The WHO promotes integrated control programs for VL but this policy is not well supported by systematic quantitative and dynamic evidence and so potential benefits of the policy are limited. Moreover, mathematical models can be readily developed and used to understand the functioning of the VL system cheaply and systematically. The focus of this research is three-fold: (i) to identify non-traditional but critical mechanisms for ongoing VL transmission in resource limited regions, (ii) to review mathematical models used for other infectious diseases that have the potential to capture identified factors of VL, and (iii) to suggest novel quantitative models for understanding VL dynamics and for evaluating control programs in such frameworks for achieveing VL elimination goals.