标题： 一种行为建模方法来评估新冠疫苗犹豫的影响 显示英文标题

标题： A behavioural modelling approach to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy

摘要： 在本文中，我们引入了一个分 compartment 传染病模型，该模型描述了在非强制性疫苗接种情况下 COVID-19 疾病的传播。 该模型考虑了对疫苗接种的犹豫和拒绝。 为此，我们采用了信息指数，这模仿了这样一个想法：个体在决定是否接种疫苗时，不仅基于当前的信息，还基于关于疾病传播的过去信息。 理论分析和模拟清楚地表明，自愿接种疫苗可以显著减少疾病的影响，但无法将其完全消除。 我们还展示了与信息相关的参数如何影响疾病的动力学。 特别是，在信息覆盖范围大和记忆特征时间小的情况下，疫苗接种的犹豫和拒绝更容易被控制。 最后，也研究了季节性可能的影响。 显示英文摘要

摘要： In this paper we introduce a compartmental epidemic model describing the transmission of the COVID-19 disease in presence of non-mandatory vaccination. The model takes into account the hesitancy and refusal of vaccination. To this aim, we employ the information index, which mimics the idea that individuals take their decision on vaccination based not only on the present but also on the past information about the spread of the disease. Theoretical analysis and simulations show clearly as a voluntary vaccination can certainly reduce the impact of the disease but it is unable to eliminate it. We also show how the information-related parameters affect the dynamics of the disease. In particular, the hesitancy and refusal of vaccination is better contained in case of large information coverage and small memory characteristic time. Finally, the possible influence of seasonality is also investigated.