标题： 病毒变异的流行病学理论 显示英文标题

标题： Epidemiological theory of virus variants

摘要： 我们提出一种物理理论，用于解释竞争性病毒变种的时间演化，该理论依赖于(准)固定点的存在，这些固定点捕捉了动力学的大时间尺度不变性。 为了激发我们的结果，我们首先修改了经典的SIR型分 compartment 模型，以考虑竞争性变种的存在，然后展示如何自然地将它们的演化重新表述为以准固定点结束的流方程。 作为自然的下一步，我们采用(近似)尺度不变性，在流行病有效描述的重整化群框架内组织竞争性变种的时间演化。 我们将该理论与COVID-19病毒变种的时间演化进行对比，实证验证了该理论。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We propose a physical theory underlying the temporal evolution of competing virus variants that relies on the existence of (quasi) fixed points capturing the large time scale invariance of the dynamics. To motivate our result we first modify the time-honoured compartmental models of the SIR type to account for the existence of competing variants and then show how their evolution can be naturally re-phrased in terms of flow equations ending at quasi fixed points. As the natural next step we employ (near) scale invariance to organise the time evolution of the competing variants within the effective description of the epidemic Renormalization Group framework. We test the resulting theory against the time evolution of COVID-19 virus variants that validate the theory empirically.