标题： 将新冠疫苗接种与社交距离措施相结合 显示英文标题

标题： Combining COVID-19 Vaccination with Social Distancing Measures

摘要： 我们分析了一个简单的SIR流行病学模型的最优控制版本，该模型包含一个部分指定的疫苗接种政策，并考虑了长期实施社交距离措施带来的疲劳感。 该模型假设人口（年龄相关）分类，其他方面是同质的。 疫苗接种的最大容量是外生的，当局选择将其分配给各个分类。 他们还可以采取措施，以经济成本为代价，统一减少感染个体和易感个体之间的接触率。 总免疫或部分免疫被建模，同时允许接触率表现出季节性。 我们应用最优控制方法，在确保医疗系统容量不被超过的情况下最小化成本指数。 合理的参数选择导致政策规定，无论各分类之间的成本变化如何，应优先将疫苗接种给予对有限医疗资源需求较高的分类。 如果某个人口统计分类具有显著更高的流动性，则疫苗接种优先级会反转；而对于某些参数值，疫苗接种会在不同分类之间交替。 最优的社交距离政策表现出季节性，因此将易感者降低到平均自发疾病消亡水平以下并不一定导致社交距离措施的取消。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We analyze an optimal control version of a simple SIR epidemiology model that includes a partially specified vaccination policy and takes into account fatigue from protracted application of social distancing measures. The model assumes demographic (age related) categories, and is otherwise homogeneous. Maximum capacity for vaccination is exogenous and the authorities select its allocation to the categories. They can also adopt measures to uniformly diminish the contact rate between infected and susceptible individuals at an economic cost. Total or partial immunity is modeled, while the contact rate is allowed to exhibit seasonality. We apply optimal control methods to minimize a cost index while guaranteeing that health system capacity is not exceeded. A reasonable parameter selection leads to policies specifying that vaccination priority should be given to the category with a higher demand for the limited health care resources regardless of cost variations among categories. Vaccination priority reverses if some demographic category has significantly higher mobility while for some parameter values vaccination alternates among categories. Optimal social distancing policies exhibit seasonality, and hence reducing susceptibles below the average spontaneous disease extinction level does not necessarily lead to a repeal of social distancing.