标题： 在专注投资组合中确定下注规模 显示英文标题

标题： Sizing the bets in a focused portfolio

摘要： 本文提供了一个数学模型和一个工具，用于实施巴菲特、芒格和其他投资界人士所倡导的集中投资策略。 此处提出的方法假设投资者的角色是考虑一组企业的不同结果的概率。 基于这些假设，该工具计算每个投资候选人的最佳资本分配。 该模型基于广义的凯利准则，并提供约束选项，以确保：不进行做空，限制杠杆的使用，提供永久性资本损失风险的最大限制，以及单个投资的最大分配。 该软件应用于一个示例投资组合，从中获得了关于过度分散化的某些观察结果。 此外，该软件可供公众使用。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The paper provides a mathematical model and a tool for the focused investing strategy as advocated by Buffett, Munger, and others from this investment community. The approach presented here assumes that the investor's role is to think about probabilities of different outcomes for a set of businesses. Based on these assumptions, the tool calculates the optimal allocation of capital for each of the investment candidates. The model is based on a generalized Kelly Criterion with options to provide constraints that ensure: no shorting, limited use of leverage, providing a maximum limit to the risk of permanent loss of capital, and maximum individual allocation. The software is applied to an example portfolio from which certain observations about excessive diversification are obtained. In addition, the software is made available for public use.