标题： 地表形变如何影响坎皮弗莱格雷（2005年至今）持续动荡期间地震的发生 显示英文标题

标题： How Ground Deformation Influences Earthquake Occurrence During the Ongoing Unrest at Campi Flegrei (2005-Present)

摘要： 我们研究了2005年至今持续的不稳定期间，坎皮弗莱格雷破火山口（意大利南部）地震累计数量与地面抬升之间的关系。 尽管之前的研究已经探讨了这种相关性，但我们提出了一种非线性流行病模型，该模型捕捉了破火山口系统的新的特征。 我们的模型将地震的发生描述为由地面变形驱动的级联过程。 非线性反映了触发机制效率的降低，这导致了地震群的持续时间较短。 这一机制可能代表了理解全球火山地震发生的一般框架。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We investigate the relationship between the cumulative number of earthquakes and ground uplift at the Campi Flegrei caldera (South Italy) during the ongoing unrest (2005-present). While previous studies have explored this correlation, we propose a nonlinear epidemic model that captures new features of the caldera system. Our model describes earthquakes' occurrence as a cascading process driven by ground deformation. The nonlinearity reflects the reduced efficiency of the triggering mechanism, which contributes to the short duration of seismic swarms. This mechanism may represent a general framework for understanding the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes worldwide.