标题： 使用巴西巴拉那州作为模型模拟南美洲大气传输和大豆锈菌夏孢子扩散的数值模拟 显示英文标题

标题： Numerical simulation of atmospheric transport and dispersion of Phakopsora pachyrhizi urediniospores in South America using the state of Paraná-Brazil as a model

摘要： 大豆锈菌（Phakopsora pachyrhizi）是一种专性寄生真菌，在野外需要活的植物组织才能长时间生存。该真菌引发亚洲锈病，每年仅在南美大豆生产中的防控成本就达数十亿美元。 尽管巴西禁止在一年中某些月份（无大豆期）种植大豆，但邻国巴拉圭和玻利维亚的大豆种植区的存在可能有助于病原体在作物季节之间存活。 已知P. pachyrhizi的夏孢子可以通过风传播数千公里。 在这种背景下，本研究的目标是开发一个数学模型，模拟从巴拉圭/玻利维亚西部通过冷锋风暴向巴西巴拉那运输P. pachyrhizi夏孢子。 夏孢子的运输由扩散-对流-反应方程建模。使用了2018年10月至2019年2月期间穿过巴拉那州的冷锋的风向和速度数据。 为了验证模型，使用了Anti-Rust Consortium Portal在2018/19年度报告的巴拉那州锈病实际发生情况。 结果在数学上证实了来自西部国家感染地区的夏孢子可以被运输并沉积到东部巴拉那州。 巴拉那州/巴西大豆锈病的第一例出现在第一次冷锋后的10天内，表明运输和沉积的夏孢子仍具有宿主感染能力。 这项工作强调了其他国家实施无大豆期的重要性，并有助于更好地理解真菌传播系统，从而实现正确使用杀菌剂。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Phakopsora pachyrhizi is a biotrophic fungus that requires living plant tissue to survive in the wild for extended periods. The fungus causes Asian rust and costs billions of US dollars every year for its control in South American soy production. Despite the regulatory measure that prohibits the cultivation of soybeans in some months of the year (soybean-free period) in Brazil, the presence of soybean production areas in neighboring countries, such as Paraguay and Bolivia, can help the survival of the pathogen between crop seasons. It is known that P. pachyrhizi urediniospores can be spread/transported thousands of kilometres by the wind. In this context, the objective of this work was to develop a mathematical model to simulate the atmospheric transport of P. pachyrhizi urediniospores from the west, Paraguay/Bolivia to Paran\'a Brazil, through storms coming from cold fronts. The transport of urediniospores was modeled by a diffusive-convective-reactive equation. Wind direction and the velocity of cold fronts that crossed Paran\'a state between October 2018 and February 2019 were used. For validation, real cases of rust occurrence in the Paran\'a state informed by the Anti-rust Consortium Portal in the season 2018/19 were used. The results confirm mathematically that urediniospores from infected areas located in a country on the west can be transported and deposited on the east, in the state of Paran\'a. The first case of soybean rust in Paran\'a state/Brazil was registered 10 days after the first cold front, suggesting that the transported and deposited urediniospores were still viable for host infection. This work reinforces the importance of the establishment of the soybean-free period in other soybean-producing countries. It will also provide a better understanding of the fungus dispersion system, potentially enabling the correct use of fungicides.