标题： 使用新的季节性指数重新定义流感传播季节性 显示英文标题

标题： Redefining Influenza Transmission Seasonality Using the Novel Seasonality Index

摘要： 气候条件对流感流行病学的影响主要通过研究传播的一个单一方面以及与之相关的气候变量来探讨。 随着气候变化以空前的速度展开，我们需要新的多学科方法，能够应对快速变化环境中疾病传播的复杂性，并帮助我们更好地理解其对健康的影响。 在本研究中，我们实施了一个新颖的季节性指数，以捕捉影响季节性流感流行的广泛的气候、传染性和社会行为机制网络。 我们假设复杂的、区域特定的行为模式在特定季节内随着气象条件的变化，交叉调节流感的传播和疫情动态。 为了更好地理解这一现象，我们分析了温带欧洲国家的每周监测数据，并利用季节性指数重新定义了季节性过渡。 这种方法使我们能够更准确地描述流感季节性与特定大气条件之间的关系。 关键发现包括：i）不同气候区和社会群体中流感感染率与季节性指数之间存在强烈的相关性，ii）由季节性指数确定的冬季持续时间与感染率功率谱密度中低频峰值的时间尺度之间存在高度线性相关性。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The impact of climate conditions on influenza epidemiology has mostly been studied by addressing a singular aspect of transmission and a climate variable correlating to it. As climate change unfolds at an unprecedented rate, we urgently need new multidisciplinary approaches that can embrace complexity of disease transmission in the fast-changing environment and help us better understand the implications for health. In this study, we have implemented a novel seasonality index to capture a vast network of climate, infectious, and socio-behavioural mechanisms influencing a seasonal influenza epidemic. We hypothesize that intricate, region-specific behavioural patterns are cross regulating the influenza spreading and dynamics of epidemics with changes in meteorological conditions within a specific season. To better understand the phenomena, we analysed weekly surveillance data from temperate European countries and redefined seasonal transitions using the seasonality index. This approach allowed us to characterize influenza seasonality more accurately in relation to specific atmospheric conditions. Key findings include: i) a strong correlation between influenza infection rates and the seasonality index across different climate zones and social groups, and ii) a high linear correlation between winter duration, determined by the seasonality index, and the time scale of low-frequency peaks in the infection rates power spectral density.